About the juggling of the figures of the so called Kishishe massacre

12 Feb

A lot of ink has been flown about what really happened in Kishishe and Bambo between the 21st and the 29th of November last year.  The M23 rebels clashed with an FDLR-Nyatura and Mayi Mayi force in and around those villages.  Immediately  after the fighting the government in Kinshasa started accusing the rebels to have killed dozens of innocent villagers. Julien Paluku, the former governor of North-Kivu and current minister in Tshisekedi’s government, came up with a figure of 300 killed. The international press jumped on the occasion and started even to accuse the Rwandan army of atrocities, copying the narratives of the Kinshasa blindfolded.  Shortly after that the UN started asking questions to villagers who fled Kishishe to Nyanzale and to Bwindi to conclude that approx. 120 innocent people died there. So, what happened there exactly? How many people died there and how many of them were militiamen?  We asked the M23 rebels to bring us to Kishishe, to interrogate the locals who were still living there and who did not flee, to look for tombs of buried civilians, etc.  They accepted without any hesitation. After a long walk and a long ride trough this freshly ‘liberated’ area we reached Kishishe where we could freely talk with the locals.

Our findings

We concluded that approx. 11 militiamen and 8 civilians died during the fighting in the village, contrary to the declarations of the government nobody was executed in the local church, the houses in the village were untouched and only one civilian died in Bambo. The M23 told us that they chased the FDLR out of Bambo and Kishishe and that dozens of them were killed during that process. But those died in the fierce fighting that followed their retreat out of the two localities and they could therefore not be labeled as ‘civilians’.  We interviewed several villagers on camera and put the edits online and we also wrote a report in which we detailed most of our findings. We even forwarded a list with the names of most of the casualties.  Just after entering this zone, it became clear that the Congolese authorities had not counted on a couple of journalists and researchers to conduct research on the spot.  They responded immediately by accusing us to have entered their country without visa’s, we were falsely accused that we had bluffed and had told the locals to work for Al Jazeera, as we were all living in Rwanda they accused us to work for the Rwandan government and that we were trying to cover up the cruelty of the M23. Al Jazeera even contributed to that propaganda cinema with a written and stamped communique that we were not working for them and that they refrained from using our footage. They did this without calling us first to check these allegations. And by neglecting  this they made a very big professional mistake:  it even went so far that the FDLR tried to ambush us on the road between Bwiza and Tongo, when we returned from Bwiza. The M23 intercepted an FDLR ambush party of 10 militiamen, they killed most of them and the ones who survived told them that they had received orders to kill us. By bringing out this communique Al Jazeera had given weight to the allegations that were thrown on the Kinshasa propaganda mill and therefore they had brought our lives in extra danger.

During our research on the spot, we were never chaperoned or told by the M23 what to ask or not to ask, most of our local contacts spoke freely.  It is possible though that some of them tempered their testimonies due to the presence of M23 soldiers. But others told us bluntly what happened and that they regretted that the FDLR had to vacate the region because of the fact that they were actually living well under their umbrella.  We phoned them a couple of days ago and the M23 had not done them any harm after telling us this.

FDLR heartland

Another factor that is of very big importance in this discussion is the fact that the region around Kishishe and Bambo was the heartland of the radical factions of the FDLR for more than 20 years.  This region produced millions of dollars via agriculture, taxation of vehicles and motorbikes on road blocks, mineral trade, etc.  Loosing this jelly cake and being chased from their homes must have been a very bitter pill for them to swallow. FDLR extremists had manned positions in the surrounding hills, their wives and parents worked on the plantations they controlled, they married local Congolese citizens and they paid off FARDC officers to be left alone. Just outside Kishishi they controlled a gigantic concession where all kinds of vegetables were cultivated, the so called ‘Domaine’.  Most of the local civil society members went along in this scheme.  The walls of their castle crumbled down when the M23 chased them out of the region. Their families fled to nearby villages such as Nyanzale or Bwindi. The FDLR had also forged alliances with local Mayi Mayi groups and local defense groups of the Congolese Hutu community (Nyatura).  Some of them were of Nande origin and linked to people such as Julien Paluku. Those of Congolese Hutu origin were linked to f.i. Eugene Serafuli, another collaborator of President Tshisekedi. As the FARDC integrated most of them into their ranks (to be used as cannon fodder) the FDLR suffered heavy losses. But they were able to leave sleepers behind to stage ambushes and to inform them about the M23’s movements. For the moment the M23 is in the process to identify and to neutralize them.  The FARDC and its allies are making their last stand now just outside Sake and the city of Goma is already completely surrounded by the M23.

As I already told you most of the FDLR and Mayi Mayi related families fled villages such as Bambo, Tongo, Kishishe and also Kitchanga to nearby places such as Nyanzale and Bwindi. Most of the local société civile members followed them as they were also entangled into the local FDLR projects. These FDLR heartlands provided a foundation for the whole Rwandan opposition: its military wings as well as its political outlets such as the different FDU parties in Europe. If this situation prevails the FDLR might be beaten up completely in a couple of months.

UN & HRW research on Kishishe

It is exactly in this surrounding that the UN conducted its research on what really happened in Kishishe. Without making a difference between military and civilian casualties and without providing names of victims.  They were fishing for info a pawn that was full of fish that was related to the FDLR and the local Mayi Mayi and in which the local société civile had its own interests. That same société civile had already provided lies to Kinshasa to start with, several weeks ago. It had dressed up a picture of completely destroyed villages, destroyed churches and mass graves believing that nobody would be able to go and check facts on the spot. The fact that the UN came up with a second report a couple of days ago is also to be considered to be another doubtful splash in a big lake that fails to make bigger waves.  This time they claimed more than 170 civilian deaths in Kishishe. Again, they had conducted research in Nyanzale and Bwindi, in camps where the FDLR and the Mayi Mayi were pulling most of the strings. No visual evidence was provided and just one day before Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report that only 22 civilians were killed during the fighting in Kishishe.  So, who killed the remaining 150 victims?

HRW is known for its rabiate anti-Kigali attitude.  They rarely pay attention to the actions of other Congolese militia’s such as CODECO, FDLR and ADF-Nalu. Some of their researchers are afraid to row against the current of their anti-Tutsi attitude in order to keep their jobs. They finance research groups such as the “Barometre de Securite des Kivus” that was placed under the wings of Jason Stearns, an American academic who conducted a lot of research in the region in the past but whose anti-Kigali attitude is also becoming more and more visible. Other funds are going to groups such as Lucha, youngsters who wanted to out their discontent about the ongoing problems in the region. It all started with good intentions but recently Lucha was involved in inciting the local population in the Kivu’s against the Tutsi’s, in hatred campaigns, etc.

Figures

HRW was amongst the first groups to market Tshisekedi’s propaganda about the events in Kishishe. Its former boss Kenneth Roth broadly smeared this on Twitter and on other social media. Roth is not in charge of the organization any more but his shadow is still lumbering over it: worse Kigali haters like him can only be found in circles of die-hard Hutu extremists in Canada and/or in Europe.  In their short report they mentioned that the M23 took men outside their house to execute them. We only received one testimony of a woman who told us the same thing, in Kishishe. Most of our witnesses told us that the cross fire between the M23 and the other militias caused most of the killings. Nobody is perfect and their numbers are slightly higher than ours but they didn’t make a difference between killed militia-men and civilians.  They were unable to come up with the names of the diseased as well. And most probably they had been fishing for info in the same pawn as the UN.  The UN and HRW probably didn’t coordinate their research, otherwise HRW would probably gladly have used their finding to beef up their figures about Kishishe.

HRW and the UN did not use our findings in their reports as they probably did not consider us as a credible source. They might have done that anyway to check their testimonies in a more professional way. Their findings can be countered with very simple and valid arguments: they were the result of questions being posed to a ‘a priori’ hostile population that had to abandon its life under the FDLR umbrella and that was highly anti-Tutsi. Neither the UN or HRW was able to provide names of victims and their reports were very unprecise about the exact locations of the so-called executions they are accusing the M23 off. Both reports did not give precise information if the figures they provided contained armed FDLR and Mayi Mayi fighters, they lacked the remark that both of these groups were fighting the M23 in civilian clothes.

Bombarding civilians

We are asking ourselves if the international community is aware of the fact that, as we write this paper, the FARDC and their FDLR and Mayi Mayi are shelling several villages in Masisi and also in the Rutshuru plains with heavy artillery causing several also innocent villagers to die and to destruct their houses.  This forces the M23 to advance to clear out these artillery positions. Very soon the M23 might start shelling back with the heavy artillery pieces that are falling into their hands as the FARDC withdraws.  M23 did not have the intention to take Sake but they might have to do this anyway to stretch the firing range of the heavy FARDC guns to far behind Sake. Bombarding civilians with heavy guns is a war crime, hiring Wagner style mercenaries too. When HRW stipulates that the FARDC should stop arming the FDLR and use them as their main fighting engine they never mention the havoc and the misery those groups cause. Their analysis is very one sighted and their narratives are being used by extremists to justify their acts. 

The UN is failing big time to be of any use in the DRC: with 19000 troops on the ground in the DRC and a budget that is rocketing sky high they allow things to get out of hand. They keep on supporting an institution that is collaborating with the FDLR.  In the meanwhile, their passivity also encourages more than 100 other groups of bandits to commit crimes.  The lack of common sense and the unwillingness to react to protect people in need can be classified as a war crime.  The clock is ticking for Goma….

                                                                              Marc Hoogsteyns

Why negotiations in Bujumbura, Luanda and in Nairobi will always remain a dead letter

5 Feb

Yesterday the East African Heads of State met in the Burundian capitol Bujumbura. Nearly nobody expected a positive outcome but talking is always much better than fighting. And for once the Congolese president Felix Tshisekedi didn’t send his cat: his army is in complete disarray, Goma is de facto surrounded and a temporary cease fire was more than necessary so that the FARDC could lick its wounds.  Well knowing that they were being pushed with their backs against the wall the FARDC and the FDLR fought a bit better the last couple of days but they were still no match for the M23. Goma is as good as surrounded now, FARDC movements in and out of the city are now impossible and the M23 holds the finger on the button to shut down the airport as well. Cutting off access via the Kivu Lake is also very easy.

Dead letter

Negotiations between Congo and its surrounding countries will always remain a dead letter as long as the Congolese government refuses to talk to the M23 directly. Many outsiders seem to forget that deals were made in 2013 when general Sultan Makenga withdrew his forces from Goma to take refuge in Rwanda and in Uganda. During this withdrawal there was nearly no fighting but Kinshasa took it as an all out victory against the Tutsi’s and considered further discussion not necessary. In the meanwhile, the FDLR, Rwandan Hutu extremists, were re-equipped by the Ugandans and later on by the FARDC. The Ugandans send weapons to the FDLR during the stand off between Rwanda and Uganda. When that problem was solved the FARDC, the traditional business partner of the Rwandan Hutu extremists, started sponsoring and equipping them. Tired of waiting and threatened by the FDLR the M23 leadership decided to leave their shelters on the Sabino volcano to put pressure on Kinshasa. They wanted to talk about the thousands of Bagogwe refugees (Congolese Tutsi’s) that were still sheltered in refugee camps in Rwanda, a possible reintegration of M23 soldiers into the FARDC, etc.  Kinshasa kept on refusing their demands and started branding them as terrorists. As the political chaos in Kinshasa had become bigger than ever before Tshisekedi & co also started pointing their fingers at the Rwandan government. They accused Kigali to support the rebels to regain access to the Congolese Kivu’s. At that point this was not the case but the international community followed Kinshasa in its narrative of being aggressed by a neighboring country. That same international community never really understood the dynamics of the Tutsi community in the African Great Lakes Region and by relying on partially biased reports of the UN and institutions  such as Human Rights Watch it was easy for them to find extra arguments. Countries such as the US, Belgium and France had validated the fact the Tshisekedi could become president a couple of years ago without winning the elections. They were all very well aware that the Congolese construction was just good on paper but that in reality the country was on the verge of falling apart. And this is happening right now! It could have been prevented if the international community would have taken the corrupt Congolese cow by the horns to treat its diseases. The former president Mobutu brought the country already to complete bankruptcy, father and son Kabila worsened that procedure but than a Congolese taxi driver from Brussels was given the chance to set things straight. The poor guy had never set food into the Congolese interior, he surrounded himself with a bunch of old timer politicians and his own friends and family. The first months of his reign were quite and Tshisekedi was given the advantage of the doubt but it soon became clear that he was not up to the task.

M23

When the M23 took up arms again last year they were only a couple of hundreds of soldiers strong. But as it was easy for them to push back the FARDC their numbers started growing. Hundreds of youngsters from the camps in Rwanda, ex-RDF soldiers of Congolese origin and mainly Bagogwe and even Burundian Tutsi’s joined their ranks. The movement started to receive aid and support of the Congolese Tutsi community abroad,  they still had stocks of weapons in cashes and the re-activated M23 was able to put a well structured political program on the table.  When general Laurent Nkunda was driven into submission and into exile several dozens of young ex-rebels were send to universities abroad. They studied there, some of them even did military tours in the US Marines force. But they all returned to their cradle.  For the government in Kinshasa all this made the M23 twice as dangerous: most of the other 130 rebel groups in the region are composed of local bandits without a consistent leadership. The well-organized structure of the M23 made the outside world believe that only a country like Rwanda could be able to be behind all this.  The M23 soldiers were well motivated and disciplined, they are fighting to change things and to bring back their families to their home land.  Kinshasa knew and understood that if the M23 would be able to get the moderate Hutu community in Congo on its side, the Banyamulenge in South-Kivu the Kivu provinces could go their own way and initiate a snow ball effect so that other regions in Congo would follow their example.

Goma

The immediate strategy of the M23 is not to take Goma; all the indications are there that they will stop in Sake and in Kibumba to let the city bleed dry on itself. Other indications show that the movement will focus its efforts on the decapitation of the FDLR and the Nyatura and other militia’s that can bother them. The FDLR appeared much stronger militarily than most people thought. They had been able to revive their strength with the support they had received from Uganda and the FARDC. The fighting force of the FDLR was estimated six months ago by people who know this region well at 3000 strong. They were controlling areas in which they produced vegetables, Makala-charcoal and they were controlling a big part of the local mineral-trade. The M23 chased them out of these areas and is now in control of most or the so called “Petit Nord’, the southern part of the Nord-Kivu province.  The FDLR business construction and their yearly profits were estimated by specialist to reach nearly 100 million dollars per year.  Their main military body withdrew from this area, others fled to Pinga and Bwito. But they left behind a number of sleepers, FDLR elements that mingled with the local population and that can put up ambushes and disorganize the local population and create fear.  The M23 grew in numbers but they are not strong enough to fight in the same time on different front lines and consolidate their positions in the interior of the area they are controlling now. And this is what they will do in the coming days and weeks: the hunt for the FDLR leadership and the FDLR radicals is on.

In the meanwhile, chaos can erupt in Goma as it has become clear that the EAC-forces are not ready to start fighting against the M23. Much to the disapproval of president Tshisekedi who had hoped to use them as gun fodder to beef up the strength of his own forces.  Today youngsters in Goma put up road blocks against the EAU-forces and the prestige of the local UN-forces (Monusco) is very low as well. The mob in Goma can easily be influenced by outsiders and local authorities but the international community has learned during the previous couple of months to look straight trough those tricks. The fact that the communication apparatus of the Congolese government produced so much fake news and blunders recently as well strengthens this fact. Hypochondria is no longer an option for Kinshasa. Tshisekedi left Bujumbura yesterday empty handed. He even signed a paper in which he agreed with the dismantling of all the foreign forces under his umbrella. This would mean that he would have to send hiking the FDLR and the mercenary force that he hired. Many FDLR and also some mercenaries died during the last couple of days but if Tshisekedi forces them out he would put himself in his underpants completely. And in this scenario the FDLR would turn its anger also against the FARDC.  The M23 does not consider itself as a foreign force and they were never invited in any negotiations so far. Withdrawing again and vacating the newly captured areas is not an option for them either.  If the cease fire that was agreed on in Burundi holds out for a couple of days or weeks that would play into their advantage as well as they will be able to consolidate their positions in the interior start to prepare to attack the FDLR in their new hold outs.

Kigali

The ongoing problems in the Kivu’s are a thorn in the eye for the government in Kigali. Kagame & co do not seek war and they do not want to occupy or annex a part of the DRC. They just want to develop their country and if this can be done in a legal way of importing and exporting goods from and to Congo the better.  Military support to the M23 was inexistent and if not quasi negligible until a couple of months ago when the FARDC shelled Rwanda and started sending its Sukhois over its arial space. That changed the attitude of the Rwandan government. The fact that the FDLR found its second breath with the support they received from the FARDC is a treat for them as well. At that moment the international community was already convinced by Kinshasa that Rwanda was the driving force behind the M23 but this was wrong.  Until today they deny the presence of Rwandan troops in the Kivu’s. It is easy to accuse them that they are lying. For the outside world every Tutsi is de facto Rwandan and the M23 fights and functions in the same way as the RDF. I witnessed this myself several times. Furthermore the M23 can count on the sympathy from all the other Tutsi’s abroad. While discussing this with several foreign military analysts we were told that any army in the position of the RDF would send recce elements behind the enemy lines to be able to anticipate better its moves. But in this case, this would not be necessary. Via their ex-brothers in arms inside the M23 they are very well informed. 

Kamikaze

But a very big adder is hiding in the bush: the fact that Tshisekedi and his ragtag army have been pushed completely into a corner that is named Goma and that they might be crazy enough to launch a desperate banzai attack on Rwanda. This is not fiction…..  In the recent past Kinshasa already took several very stupid decisions and right now they are at the end op the rope of their own credibility. They were spoiled and sheltered by the international community that followed them in their narratives. In the recent past Burundi and Uganda tried to lure Rwanda into an open and larger scale war but Kagame didn’t go for that bait. This time this is different: Kigali is convinced of the stupidity of the Congolese leadership, Tshisekedi will be spit out by his own population when he has to leave the Kivu’s with his tail between his legs. In case of a bigger war, it would be more probable that the international community would move in with a more decisive military force to turn the odds back into his favor.  Tshisekedi might be crazy enough to push this trough.  But that would be utterly stupid: Rwanda has massed crack combat ready troops at the border to react immediately against such an action.  The FARDC and the FDLR would be no match for the disciplined and very well-oiled RDF-machine.

Some people might say that this is exaggerated but during the last couple of days we received several phone calls of diplomats who also talked about this. The border with Congo around Goma and Gisenyi was already very well protected. But according to a couple of them the RDF is also organizing a military wall in the south, between Cyangugu and Bugarama. They would never display such a force inside the country if for them the treat from Congo would not be considered realistic. This force would not even allow an FDLR mouse to pass its borders. Therefore, such a crazy attack from the Congolese army or the FDLR would de facto have to be classified as ‘kamikaze’.  And Goma and Bukavu could be taken by the RDF in a couple of hours. Most of those diplomats agreed that Tshisekedi could be crazy enough to go for this doom-act! One of them even told me that if he’ll give the order to attack Rwanda he’ll do it out of a city such as Goma so that a possible counter attack from the RDF would probably kill a lot of civilians. Last week Kitschanga was shelled to pieces by the FARDC. Their shells did not bother that much the M23 but killed several innocent civilians. This already proves that they do not take the lives of their own citizens into consideration.

Congolese politicians

If the international community would have stepped in earlier to force the Congolese government to negotiate directly with the M23 and to respect the deals that were concluded in 2013 we would not find ourselves in this situation.  The Rwandan government already had to deal with Mobutu and the Kabila’s in the past.  Martin Fayulu, the guy who won the elections last time but who was pushed aside to make place for Kabila, is also known to be a rabiate Tutsi hater. Because of all the ongoing problems in the Kivu’s and the fact that Kinshasa was able to shovel  most of the blame of the countries misery into president Kagame’s shoes Rwanda has lost its trust in the entire Congolese political establishment. And therefore more and more people here in Kigali get convinced that the only was to solve this problem is to go in there themselves to restore order. Again: all this could have been prevented! A cornered rat can save itself out of a narrow corner if it can go for the troth of its adversary and if it is strong. Tshisekedi’s FARDC- and FDLR-forces lack this capability.  The Tutsi community is also convinced that in case the Congolese government accepts to talk to the M23 an accepts de deal that was concluded in 2013 it would just do so to win extra time, to lick its wounds and to revive the violence in the future. Therefore, they will insist on a protection force for the Rwandophone population in the Kivu’s. The Banyamulenge community is also under treat so South-Kivu would, very likely, also be incorporated into this construction.

The next couple of days and weeks will be crucial for this region and for the future of the DRC. There will never be peace as long as the government in Kinshasa refuses to honor the deals that were made in 2013. Let’s hope for the best!

                                                                             Marc Hoogsteyns

Kagame delivers a shot across Thisekedi’s bow…..

1 Dec

President Paul Kagame held a remarkable speech yesterday in Kigali about the ongoing problems in the Congolese Kivu’s. Just before that Minister of Foreign Affairs Vincent Biruta had already launched a similar communique. Their reaction clearly shows that Kigali is losing faith in the ongoing peace talks and is fed up completely with the fact that the international community fails to understand the grass roots of this conflict. The urge to act in Kigali is growing,

  • It is more than significant that the Rwandan President spends more than one hour to transmit his opinion about the mess in the DRC. He didn’t spare his words and didn’t hold back to fire a well-aimed shot across the bow of the international community and the Congolese government.   
  • It shows that Kigali’s believe in the trustworthiness of the Congolese leadership is rock bottom low. The Rwandans are also fed up completely to be categorized as the sole culprits for the total military and political bankruptcy of the Congolese state. Kagame openly accused President Tshisekedi to use this strategy to be able to postpone the upcoming elections in the DRC.
  • The Rwandan President repeated that his country did everything that was possible to solve this problem diplomatically. But while reading his message between the lines one can only conclude that – for him – a solution can only be found if the grass roots of the problems will be addressed and if all the protagonists involved will have the right to speak.
  • For Kagame the cliché that Rwanda wants to control the Kivu’s for its minerals is fake as well: he wants to do business with the DRC in a normal and open way so that both countries can benefit from it. 
  • Kigali looks at the opposition against its government as a clearly defined block of Hutu extremists in which the FDLR in the DRC form the military wing and other groups in Europe and in Rwanda the so-called democratic face. While their links with their genocidaire past remain obvious. The fact that the Congolese government inserted the FDLR in its ranks is a torn in his eyes and an open provocation on itself.  
  • Kagame even added that he’s giving this lobby the right to speak openly in Rwanda via several opposition members (such as Victoire Ingabire) and that this problem shall be dealt with accordingly, later on.
  • He agrees that the territorial integrity of Congo should be respected but he also added that the territorial integrity of Rwanda itself was frequently violated in the recent past. Kagame clearly expects more provocations but this statement can be interpreted as one of last warnings not to cross Kigali’s line of tolerance again.
  • Kagame’s attitude and words show clearly that his country can only rely on itself to defend its borders, interests and its development while the outside world keeps on labeling him and his government as dictatorial and criminal. As if they want to turn this into a kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The fact that President Paul Kagame lowered yesterday his normally very reserved shield shows clearly that Kigali has reached its top level of tolerance: Rwanda’s reputation and security are at stake and its leaders are coming bit by bit to the conclusion that they will have to solve this problem themselves. The RDF is omni-present at the Rwandan side of the border and outclasses the military forces on the other side in discipline, battle weariness and equipment several times. It would only take them a couple of days to set things straight. Nothing will come out of the peace talks in Nairobi unless Kinshasa decides to invite the M23 as well. The international community already put the entire blame of Congo’s mess on the shoulders of the Rwandan government and that is a big mistake. The international press is following largely this narrative and is making this cliché bigger. Rwanda is not interested in a war but the public opinion in the country is pushing the government to find a quick and a durable solution. If this solution will be put only in the hands of a bunch of political charlatans in Kinshasa who are accusing each other already to be too tolerant towards the Rwandans and the Tutsi community in Congo nothing will happen as well. Tutsi bashing and hatred have become mainstream political tools in the Congolese capitol. All the facts and the previous deals are present to stop this ongoing process but if political correctness and courage remain absent Congo will be doomed.

  Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency

Tshisekedi’s policy in the Kivu’s: a never ending list of blunders………….. 

18 Aug

President Felix Tshisekedi is hosting an SADC encounter in Kinshasa during which he was appointed the new leader for the coming year. As expected, he used the occasion to tap on Rwanda by calling the so-called Rwandan support to the M-23 barbaric and cruel. Tshisekedi is running out of options to find possible allies to back up a military force to counter the M-23 in the Kivu’s:  the collaboration with Monusco went completely bankrupt after it became clear that this organization could not prevent that the FARDC was using FDLR elements to fight them, the grass was cut in front of the feet of a possible East-African intervention force by allowing the Burundian army pre-emptively on Congolese soil. This army has a very bad reputation and consists largely of Imbonerakure Hutu extremists. Felix Tshisekedi had also hoped that the visit of the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken could help him in condemning the Rwandans. But that failed big time as well. His last option is now to get the support of the SADC but that chance is very slim as well given the fact that the South-Africans are currently probably too weak to set up a military force to counter the M-23 north of Goma. Add to that that the South-African army depends on the Rwandan army (RDF) in Cabo del Gado – Mozambique not to be put in its underpants and the picture becomes complete.  Kinshasa is running out of options now: the attitude of the new Kenyan president about the ongoing problems in the Kivu’s is unknown. As we speak the war between the M-23 and the FARDC is flaring up again: both parties accuse each other to have started this. Many analysts believe that Tshisekedi is convinced that only a bigger scale war in which the RDF will sweep into the DRC can solve his problem and to delay the upcoming elections. Some very high up officials in Rwanda told me that it will not be necessary to send in the RDF to solve this problem and that Tshisekedi already trapped himself in a web of contradictions, lies, hatred and incompetence. And the harder he shouts and the more he tries to wiggle his bum to free himself the less air he’ll have to breed.

 

I already summed up most of the arguments to back up this point of view in previous articles.  Blinken’s visit to Congo and to Rwanda clearly did not have the effect on things that Tshisekedi had hoped for. On the contrary!  The Americans made it clear that Congo’s minerals were more important to them and that the Congolese would have to clean up their dirty kitchen via peace talks in Luanda and in Nairobi. Even the leaked report from the UN experts about Rwanda’s involvement with the M-23 lacked credibility given the fact that the UN is equally responsible for the ongoing crisis and that the organization was urgently looking for arguments to sustain its presence in the area.

Biggest blunder

But the biggest blunder that Tshisekedi pulled out of his sleeve recently was the acceptance of the Burundian army on Congolese soil. There was already talk that the Burundian army would take part in a possible East-African intervention force to counter the M-23 rebels and that a Burundian general would be put in charge of logistics in this force. Everybody was waiting for the outcome of the elections in Kenya to see how this could be organized. The new president did not pronounce himself yet on this topic.

Everybody knows as well that the Burundian army was already present in South-Kivu before the official announcement in Kinshasa was made. Mainly to counter the Burundian rebel group Red Tabara that had set up camps there. The first credible reports showed that many Burundian soldiers were killed during the fighting. Another important factor is the poor state of the Burundian army: the Hutu extremist regime in Bujumbura is nearly bankrupt and the country lost a lot of international support. The army is badly equipped and consists largely of very badly trained Imbonerakure. These Imbonerakure are the Burundian equivalent of the Rwandan FDLR and several reports show us that they also have FDLR elements in their ranks. Recently a Burundian human rights group published a report that several Imbonerakure who were sent to Congo already started complaining that they lacked the skills to fight well. Other sources tell us that the Burundian forces are not of very badly paid and resort to looting and rape. Although some Banyamulenge militiamen, such as the Gumino, are known to fight under the same banner as the Burundian army the Imbonerakure are a direct treat for the larger Tutsi community in South-Kivu. If the Burundian forces would be integrated into a possible East-African Force this could only result into an even bigger mess with the Imbonerakure linking up with their FDLR blood brothers and with the M-23 that will be highly motivated to kill as many of them as possible. By allowing the Burundians to enter Congo and to let them fight other proxy rebel forces Tshisekedi can only have one goal and that is to create an even bigger chaos. The international community should take note of this and restrain itself of financing this madness. The Burundian army is so bad that it had its ass whipped in Somalia by Al Shabab. In the Central African Republic, the same thing would have happened if the RDF would not have stepped in to save them. By allowing the Imbonerakure already in to Congo before the East African Union put a viable plan on the table Tshisekedi put himself another .50 cal bullet in his foot.

Impotence

With the probable impotence of the Alliance of South-African countries (SADC)  in mind when it will come to a military intervention in the Kivu’s Tshisekedi is using his last political ammunition to find reliable partners who are willing to support his anti-Rwandan narrative. This fact is crystal clear but nobody reacts. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Tshisekedi step into a plane that will fly him to Moscow or to Beijing very soon but that will not be the solution for peace in the region either.  The so called ‘democratic’ and softer voices in the DRC, such as Dennis Mukwege or the people from LUCHA, claim that foreign interventions must be stopped at once and that the country needs a disciplined and better organized army. They are right in this assessment but at the same time also very naïve: the entire rotten foundation of the country would have to be replaced and to do that the building on it first will have to be flattened. Such a process can take years and the fat cats who are steering this anarchy out of their lush offices and mansions in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Goma will try to block it. Well informed outsiders know that replacing Tshisekedi by other politicians such as Kabila, Fayulu, Katumbi or Bemba will not solve this problem on the long run. It will not help the situation of the people in the neighboring countries who are trying to protect their own economies and their own safety. Congo is already imploding on itself but nobody has the guts to admit this. Only the Congolese themselves are responsible for this. To shovel all that shit into the shoes of a little country such as Rwanda would be factual and intellectually incorrect. And where will this end? Nobody knows………….

                                                    Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency   

Anthony Blinken strolled trough Africa with blinkers on his head

13 Aug

Blinkers or blinders on a horse’s head inevitably narrow its view and this proverb summarizes largely the attitude of the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his short visit to Africa, this week. The outcome of this trip was marked with contradictions, a certain unwillingness to take other realities and opinions into consideration and in one extreme case also a blatant insult towards a community of people who suffered from one of the worst recent crimes against humanity: the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis in Rwanda. The American State Department had clearly put the wagon in front of the oxen before Blinken left Washington: African countries had already been warned not to take the Russian side in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Another hot potato that would have to be addressed was the faith of Paul Rusesebagina, the ex-manager of the so called ‘Hotel Rwanda’ on whose story – fake or real – the Hollywood blockbuster with the same was based but who later on set up a rebel group in Rwanda that killed several innocent civilians. In the same announcement before his departure Blinken’s office also said that there was now valid and solid proof that the Rwandan army was actively supporting the M-23 rebellion in Congo.  Blinken has left Africa now but most of the people he met were left behind with mixed feelings about the capacity of the US to contribute to peace and stability in this region. Worse even: some say that the Biden administration missed the boat big time to restore its diplomatic credibility in the African theatre. We’ll try to keep it short this time:

  • As you probably know a lot of African countries abstained from condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and some of them even rolled out a red carpet when the Russian minister of foreign affairs Sergei Lavrov visited the continent a couple of weeks ago. Within this context the visit of Anthony Blinken was also seen as a way to counter Russia’s charm offensive on the continent. The South-African government that had also abstained to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine underlined their decision during Blinken’s visit with the statement that every nation should have its own right to steer its foreign policy and to run its own affairs. Blinken agreed on that!  Earlier on some American diplomats had warned the African countries not to buy Russian products other than grain and fertilizers and that those who would do this anyway could be sanctioned. This had made a lot of Africans frown their eyebrows.  Statements like that were often made during the cold war and are not accepted any more by the African public opinion. His South-African hosts pointed out to Biden that they didn’t like this attitude.
  • Before travelling to Congo, the State Department already had issued a statement that there was solid evidence that Rwanda was actively supporting the M-23 movement. So, the expectations were very high in Kinshasa that Blinken would jump on the propaganda wagon of the Congolese government who was eager to score on international level. But de State Secretary didn’t do that. In fact, nothing special was said during the press conference at the end of his stay in Kinshasa. While the killings in the east of the country went on, hundreds of prisoners were able to flee from jail and a bunch of opposition members were thrown in jail in Kinshasa Biden was able to leave the scene unharmed.
  • So finally, he arrived in Kigali where he would have to talk about Rusesebagina’s ‘wrongful’ detention , human rights issues and also the involvement of the Rwandan army in Congo.  He received a firm ‘njet’ from Kagame on the Hotel Rwanda hero’s issue. Anyone who follows up on Rwanda knew this in advance.  He missed the opportunity to talk to Rusesebagina’s victims and relatives of those and during the press conference he said that he would continue to follow up on this case. When we were back home, we found a twitter message from Blinken that he was still convinced that Rusesebagina’s arrest was wrongful. But during the same press conference the Rwandan foreign minister Biruta had told him that there was nothing wrong with Rusesebagina’s arrest of with his judgement and that the guy was rightfully condemned for terrorism. So just like in South-Africa where Blinken was whistled back while trying to tap the local government on its fingers for their independent stand on the war in Ukraine in Rwanda he was politely asked not to meddle with the local justice system.
  • During the same press conference, he also mentioned that Congo’s neighboring countries did not have the right to intervene militarily in that country but he underlined that the Congolese authorities had fallen back on the services of the radical Hutu extremist group FDLR.  To conclude he also said that the US was putting all its hopes to solve this conflict in Congo on the ongoing talks in Luanda-Angola and in Nairobi with the possible formation of an East-African force. The Rwandan minister Biruta countered his words with the remark that the RDF was not supporting the M-23 and that the Rwandan forces were experienced enough to defend their own borders.
  • The cream of Blinken’s short visit to Rwanda was put on the cake in the genocide memorial where he wrote in the guest book that he was touched with what he saw there but instead of giving the Rwandan genocide its official name ‘1994 genocide against the Tutsi’s’ he simply called it ‘genocidal violence’. A lot of foreigners who do not know Rwanda well do not understand well why Rwanda insists on this official label. It implicates largely the discussion between genocide survivors and deniers. A tourist or a green and unexperienced journalist might not be tapped on his fingers when he or she makes this mistake. But failing to comply to this rule by a foreign political delegation must be seen in Kigali as a political statement. And it is: if Blinken was not aware of this detail this shows clearly how badly prepared this delegation was. In the other, more probable case, this shows disrespect for what really happened here during this horrible event in 1994 and it underlines and supports the statement of the radical Hutu opposition that the Tutsi rebel force of Kagame killed nearly as many Hutus as they killed Tutsis to clean up their image and to regain political credibility. This was not the case!
  • Most Rwandans and the authorities we talked to look at this mission as a missed opportunity. The relationship between the two countries had already cooled down: the US had waited for a whole year to nominate a new ambassador and the diplomat in question is already carrying the label of being unexperienced. Military collaboration between the US and Rwanda was also cut back big time and Rwanda was threatened by the US that the funding for military peace missions abroad would be put on hold if the orders from Washington would be ignored. More sanctions or more threats into that direction would have an even more adverse effect on what might happen. When Rwanda was sanctioned to support the first Tutsi rebel general in Congo, Laurent Nkunda, they were also promised that the international community would deal with the FDLR. The Rwandan support to Nkunda stopped.  When Nkunda’s men who were integrated into the Congolese army were starting to get killed and targeted Nkunda’s top collaborator Sultani Makenga started a new rebellion, the so-called M-23. They walked over the FARDC and took Goma. Again, the international community started crying that Rwanda was helping them. And again, Rwanda stopped helping these rebels. Makenga and his men were promised a full integration and again the Congolese government and the UN promised that the FDLR would be the next one on the list to be neutralized. But this never happened as well. This time the M-23 is not or nearly not supported by the Rwandan army but the Rwandan forces are deployed massively on the borders with Congo and Burundi. The Rwandan government and the Tutsi community in Congo were promised several times that the FDLR would be neutralized only to see that this band of extremist rebels is now nearly fully integrated in the FARDC (Congolese army).  Monusco, the UN force on the spot, saw this happen and lost its last integrity in this process. Rwandans are not donkeys and they are not willing to hurt themselves 3 times with the same stone.
  • Rwanda has always been under treat since the new regime took power. The fact that the Hutu extremists were able to flee to Congo and were able there to reorganize themselves politically and militarily also kicked off the first big Congo war. The international community let all this happen and many extremist Hutu leaders were able to flee to Europe. They changed the name of their outfit several times and were fast learners of certain democratic values. They set up structures such as Jambo SPRL, forged alliances with Christian and conservative parties and started collecting funds to help their military wing in Africa, the FDLR. Just like the nazi’s in Europe they also set up pipelines to help their friends in Africa flee to Europe and help others who were arrested by the Rwandan police.  This network is still very active as well to help genocide perpetrators who are extradited from Europe to Rwanda to stand trial. Paul Rusesabagina also became part of that network when these extremists convinced him to become their new front man. His men started infiltrating Rwanda from Burundi. The rest of this story you know already…. The US is now accusing Rwanda to help their brothers in Congo while in the same time they are trying to defend a guy, Hollywood hero or not, who sent his men (most of them FDLR) into Rwanda from Burundi to kill innocent people. Rusesabagina’s rebels were wiped out by the RDF and they failed to trigger off a bigger war in which Rwanda could have been accused to invade Burundi.
  • Another thing the Americans failed to grasp is the bigger geo political picture of all this: with and extremist Hutu government in Burundi that is also relying on the same FDLR to train and to organize its Inbonerakure militia (equivalent of the FDLR) and the very weak Burundian army. As we speak this force is also very active in Congo.  With the knowledge of the UN and with the consent of president Tshisekedi.  Until recently Uganda was also heavily involved in supporting the Rwandan opposition but that stopped last year after the Ugandans and the Rwandans buried their tomahawks. But the distrust between the two countries is still vividly present.  The Burundian government with which Paul Rusesabagina was closely collaborating was never openly accused of any wrong doings by the American government. That same government is bleeding Burundi to death and nobody is denouncing that. The lobby that is opposing Kigali only has one goal: to trigger of a bigger war in the region so that Rwanda can be accused as the devil who organized this. Putting embargos on the further development of the Rwandan economy and blocking international financial aid could cause an economic crisis in the country. This could trigger off a military coup. It already came to the point that these Hutu extremists were able put the whole anti-Tutsi hatred mill in Congo in motion and infect the Congolese population with the virus of racism and hatred.  The Rwandan leaders know this very well. With the US possibly siding with this lobby this tension will only become stronger.
  • Rwandans do not want war and only want to protect themselves and to develop their country. The visit of Anthony Blinken failed to bring the different protagonists closer to each other. The Luanda peace path has already been compromised by several hostile acts. The discussions in Nairobi will not have any effect if the M-23 will not get the chance to be invited and the Congolese government will continue to label them as terrorists.  What kind of foreign politician can be called credible if he says in one country that African nations have the right to set up their own system of governance and contradict the same statement big time in another African country by claiming that their justice system is not correct. How can Blinken’s declaration that foreign countries can not intervene in Congo and support military groups there be credible if he’s defending Rusesabagina who ordered his men to infiltrate Rwanda from Burundi to kill innocent people? And finally: how can he still be trusted by the Rwandan population and Rwandans who survived the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis by refusing to label this terrible event with its true name? Many people here think that America already has chosen its side in the conflict.

                         Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency

PS: We are independent journalists but we admit that we are only able to cover this side of this very complex story. Our info can therefore be used by others who are able to talk to the other protagonists so that the audience gets a better chance to balance it.   


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About Antony Blinken’s nearly impossible mission in the DRC and in Rwanda

9 Aug

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now on a charm offensive in Africa to regain the US popularity which was lost during the Trump administration, and to counter the attempts from Russia to get more African countries on their side. He is now in South-Africa, a country that has lost itself a lot of credit for its foreign and internal policies in the recent past. Blinken will continue his trip to Kinshasa, where expectations are very high that he would openly condemn Rwandans for their alleged support to M-23 rebels in EDRC. Congolese authorities won’t hesitate to classify his visit as a success.

In the meantime, there has been information from a leaked report of the UN Group of Experts (GoE), that there was “solid evidence that the RDF provided soldiers and logistics to the M-23”. This came out at a crucial moment: before the visit of Blinken, and amid a series of protests against the UN Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) in the streets of Goma, Beni and Butembo.

For the past 20 years of its existence in DRC, MONUSCO has done nothing to stop the violence in EDRC. It has only served as a logistical back up to the Congolese army (FARDC), which is considered by many as the most destructive and corrupt institution in the country. More than 100 violent or less violent militia groups were also created under MONUSCO’s watch, and it has not been able to stop the influx of combatants of the FDLR (which is officially labelled as a terrorist group by the US) & its splinter groups, into the ranks of the FARDC to fight against the M-23.

Few weeks before the anti-MONUSCO protests, the Congolese presidency had also tried to blame most of the country’s misery to the Tutsi community and the Rwandan government – although many Congo watchers saw this as a trick by the Congolese Governmemt to cover up its own incompetence and a way to postpone the upcoming presidential elections.

While other rebel groups in the far north of Goma, such as the ADF-Nalu and the CODECO, were creating more havoc and killing innocent people; the FARDC and FDLR started attacking M-23 positions on the slopes of the Bisoke volcano. The M-23 was very weak at that time, but they reorganized themselves and started mobilizing new recruits. It is indeed a fact that some of them were found in the circles of demobilized RDF soldiers. But they were born in Congo, and for them it was a natural thing to join their brothers and sisters who were now under threat.

If you visit nowadays a town like Gisenyi and you talk to most of the people there (if they can trust you enough), they will admit that many of their sons and daughters are now fighting in the M-23. They went there out of their free will. They are nearly all members of the Bagogwe clan, a group of Tutsis that was living in the Rusthuru plains, the Masisi highlands and parts of northern Rwanda. Before the Berlin Conference, more than 100 years ago, this region was all part of a territory that was reigned by Tutsi kings (mwami’s). 

It will therefore be very hard for Blinken not to pronounce himself in a proper way, if the international press and the Congolese local press – whose majority believe that Rwanda is the main culprit for everything that went and still goes wrong in the DRC – start bombarding their questions on him.

However, the UN GoE leaked report shows numerous contradictions:

•                 The fact that it was leaked at this crucial moment is very strange, questionable and probably orchestrated to put extra oil on the already very big and hot fire. Not even ten days ago other UN officials had openly stated that there was no evidence that the RDF was openly involved in all this. 

•                 The report accuses the FARDC to have equipped and incorporated FDLR units and elements, but weakens this accusation with the nuance that only a “group of FARDC officers” engaged in this kind of practices. This whitewashes Congolese officials in Kinshasa and Goma who knew very well that, if the FDLR would not get involved, the poorly disciplined, trained and corrupt FARDC would become easy game for the better motivated and experienced M-23 fighters who had already gained their spurs on other battle fields; and whose intore (Tutsi warriors) genes make them more determined and fearless. There is ample evidence that the FDLR was able to join the FARDC after the order to allow that was given by the Congolese presidency. The UN is now offering a way to Antony Blinken to put the blame of this fact on “a couple of FARDC officers” who went AWOL. This would be too easy!

•                 The fact that the UN researchers take over the FARDC argument that the M-23 fights like a regular army and is in fact capable of attacking simultaneously several FARDC positions is also questionable. When you ask most of the Congolese generals if they ever heard of Sun Tzu, they’ll probably ask you if he wants to invest in the DRC or think that he is a circus clown. M-23 commanders such as Sultani Makenga know the writings of this Chinese warlord very well, as it was part of their training manuals when they were serving in the RDF in their previous lives. One of the reasons why Goma has not been overrun until now and why Rumangabo is just being surrounded, is the fact that the M-23 is not big enough to control that whole area. This also shows that the involvement of the RDF is practically inexistent or very, very limited. By attacking several FARDC outposts simultaneously, Makenga had the FARDC believe that they were omni-present.

•                 The accusation that the M-23 is wearing RDF uniforms and dresses up like RDF soldiers does not make sense either. This stuff can be bought for a couple of dollars a piece on the internet, other things are being sent to the rebels by family members by their relatives in the camps in Rwanda and in Uganda or purchased on the markets by those same relatives in Rwanda. The kind of ammunition and weapons that the M-23 is using is not more sophisticated than the equipment the FARDC is using. Extra evidence has been delivered during the past month that this rebel group is mainly fighting with weaponry they seized from FARDC. The infamous 81-1 type Kalashnikov is also widely in use in Uganda.

•                 The M-23 has a history of hiding their ammunition and weapons in well-hidden cashes far from the front lines. One has to remember that the M-23 occupied very difficult to reach positions in the volcanic Virunga range. In these hills several volcanic caves can be found where ammunition and weapons can be kept in very dry and favorable conditions for years (such as 107 mm rockets, RPG-grenades and pieces of lighter artillery). Sultani Makenga and his men could lay their hands on several tons of this kind of weaponry in the harbor of Goma in 2013 and they were able to hide this in the volcanic hills.

•                 The American, French, English, Belgian, Chinese, Russian and other intelligemce services knew that the RDF was conducting raids against the FDLR in eastern Congo because the latter had the honesty to tell them that a couple of times in Kigali. They had even told them that they had captured a couple of FDLR in the DRC for interrogation. These Military Attachés were also told that this had nothing to do with the activities of the M-23 of which the RDF stayed clear.  The Attachés were told that the RDF had to do this to keep their fingers on the pulse of events. In the same period, it also became clear that the FDLR was planning to create havoc in Rwanda to disrupt the CHOGM event. These UN-researchers most likely knew this but could have preferred not mentioning it in their report which is a big mistake and even a hypocrite act.

•    The fact that mostly Rwandophone and Tutsi officers are in charge of bigger M-23 operations is present as well, and those guys can easily be confused with RDF officers. As we stated before most or the M-23 were subaltern officers in the RDF years ago and they behave in a way that their Rwandan commanders had thought them. But they are not fighting in Congo as Rwandans. They do this to protect their families! In this case the UN, once again, did not offer the chance to Rwanda to defend itself against all these allegations.

Meanwhile, for the government in Kinshasa, this leaked report is a confirmation that their claims were always correct. But the fact that the leaked report puts the blame of collaborating with the FDLR in fighting against the M-23 on “a couple of disobedient FARDC officers” is ridiculous. Most of the Rwandans and also the Rwandan government are getting fed up and tired of the one-sighted and anti-Rwanda narrative that is put forward in the foreign press.

Kinshasa will likely have no ears for the possible accusation of Antony Blinken that Tshisekedi & co are once again pampering the FDLR. They will promise him on their knees, with a hand on their hearts and with a finger pointing to heaven that they will never commit ‘naughty’ acts like that again in the future. But when Blinken will be leaving Kinshasa, it will be business as usual again.

Rwanda and the Tutsi community in DRC were told the same thing when Makenga vacated Goma in 2013 and withdrew into Uganda. His predecessor and commander Laurent Nkunda as well. But not one FDLR was attacked after that, and the deals made with the M-23 were never respected. This is why the Tutsi community will probably stand its ground this time. For them enough is enough!  We simply report what they feel, what they think and what they tell us and so be it if this makes us the devil’s advocate.

After Kinshasa , Blinken will travel to Kigali. The US Department of State already issued a statement announcing that Blinken will address the ‘wrongful’ arrest of Paul Rusesebagina with the Rwandan authorities. The State Department also said that Rusesebagina had saved hundreds of lives during the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis in the ‘Hotel Des Mille Collines’ or the famous ‘Hotel Rwanda’ as it was called in Hollywood. This statement clearly shows that the US has already made up its opinion in the Rusesebagina case.

The statement about Paul Rusesebagina was however not well digested in Kigali. Most of the Rwandan authorities as well as the majority of Rwandans judged the way Rusesebagina was lured and arrested, as justifiable. Rusesabagina had openly admitted that he was leading the opposition and rebel group FLN (National Liberation Front of Rwanda), which killed several innocent people in the south of the country.

Rusesabagina was also openly collaborating with the FDLR, which is made of Rwandan Hutu extremists who had participated in the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsis in Rwanda, and who had killed thousands of innocent Congolese citizens as well. During the trial of Rusesabagina and his co-accused, several of his close collaborators admitted that he was the leader of their outfit.

The US statement that Rusesebagina saved hundreds of lives is controversial as well: several other witnesses counter this. Others, such as Romeo Dallaire, the commander of the UN troops in Rwanda during the genocide, called it a blatant lie. Most of the people in that hotel were saved via an exchange of prisoners of war between the RPF (rebel force) and the genocidal government. The State Department could have avoided this discussion, by doing better research and listening less to most of the fake and un-factual statements of Rusesabagina’s family and supporters, who are still collaborating with the same FDLR.

If Blinken does not condemn the so-called Rwandan aggression during his visit to Kinshasa, he will experience the wrath of the Congolese press and the Congolese public opinion. The Chinese and the Russians, who already control most of the output of Congolese minerals, would very much applaud this.  They will accuse him of licking the heels of President Kagame.  Believe us, Congolese politicians are specialized in accusing people who are not willing to walk in their line.

If he does accuse Rwanda anyway and does what Tshisekedi & co expect from him, he’ll have to face two unpassable hurdles in Kigali. He’ll fail the first one to free Rusesebagina, that’s for sure! With a bit of luck, he’ll be able to negotiate the release of Rusesabagina in a couple of years, when some extra conditions will be met. But when he’ll address the M-23 deadlock he’ll be on a more slippery ground:  it’s not the first time that the Americans cut a big chunk of their aid to Rwanda and the last time they did this turned out to be unfavorable for them. Rwanda might fall back on the more comprehensive countries such as France, Israel (the similarity of these facts would be too much for Tel Aviv to resist not to help) and why not China? 

Other African leaders will follow up closely how Blinken will solve this problem. They know that his mission will be very difficult.  The reputation of the US as a super power in Africa has been tarnished in the past. Hilary Clinton started this process and president Trump’s disinterest and disrespect for African countries and his blatant racism towards blacks did the rest. Antony Blinken will only succeed in gaining extra credibility for his country with a better researched approach.

Marc HOOGSTEYNS

Antony Blinken: nothing is as it seems in the African Great Lakes region

5 Aug

Next week the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Rwanda and Congo. As the tensions in the region are verry high with an ongoing war in the Kivu’s between the M-23 rebels and the Congolese army, with the UN-force MONUSCO in the defensive for not being efficient enough to deal with all these problems and with all these problems and the growing criticism against Rwanda for having lured the Hollywood hero Paul Rusesebagina in a trap and having him condemned to 25 years behind bars this visit comes at a crucial moment.  Two days ago, members of a UN research group talked to colleagues of Reuters and they showed them so called facts that the Rwandan army was directly involved with the M-23 rebellion north of Goma. This news was preceded by a Human Rights Watch paper in which Rwanda was also accused to support the M-23.  A lot of Congo watchers think that you’ll be travelling to this region to tap Rwanda on its fingers. This might help to solve the situation for a couple of months but it would not solve the problem on the longer run. Nobody owns the truth in this matter but we have the impression that the US and especially the US government is not well enough informed about this very complex crisis. Looking at it through sunglasses that were purchased on Hollywood’s Sunset Boulevard, taking the findings of a UN research group and an organization such as HRW for granted and mainly listening to the small army of foreign diplomats and military attaches who are based in Kinshasa is not going to help either. Because your government might issue statements it might regret later on. Rwanda is an important and one of the most reliable allies of the US in this region and the country is involved in the struggle against Muslim extremism in other African countries, in other countries on this continent they provide counter balance against the growing Russian (Wagner) influence. On top of that their arguments about what is really happening in Rwanda and in the DRC might also have their own validity. You’ll be walking on eggs when you visit this region, Mister Blinken. And we’ll try to give you the list of the most important obstacles you’ll have to pass to make it back to the States without holes in your pants.

  • Your government calls the arrest and the trial of Paul Rusesebagina unjust and not fair. It seems to have a problem with the way the Hollywood hero was lured into a trap, flown back to Rwanda with his glass full of champagne and arrested upon arrival.  Earlier on he had expressed himself openly on the social media that he was heading the FNL, the so called ‘National Liberation Front’ of Rwanda that wanted to chase president Kagame from power via an armed struggle. This group was formed in collaboration with other groups such as the FDLR and the so called P5 (other opposition groups). The FDLR is an official terrorist organization and this was even acknowledged by your own administration. Rusesebagina was running this operation out of Texas, on American soil.  The Belgian police had passed on evidence to the Rwandan authorities to back up most of these facts. Your security and intel services were also fully informed but let this all happen.  In the meanwhile, Rusesebagina’s FNL started killing innocent people in the south of Rwanda and it became clear that his group played a key role in a lobby that wanted a regime change in Kigali. It is difficult to compare Rusesebagina’s actions with those of Osama Bin Laden but the Rwandan authorities decided to cut off the grass in front of his feet to prevent further damage.  They trapped him and he was sentenced with more than 20 of his collaborators for his crimes.
  • The Rwandan government already issued a statement that Rusesebagina will stay where he is after you leave Rwanda. Others think that you should also first talk to his victims before you issue a new statement about this issue. If you want to punish the country for this (for not showing grace to Rusesebagina) the Rwandans will accept this but they will not change their decision. Treating Rwanda simply as a bad and disobedient pupil in the class room for the way they handle the Rusesebagina issue would be unwise: especially when the headmaster of the school is also engaged in even more dubious tactics to neutralize its opponents. But that seems to be normal because he’s the boss!  
  • Another hot issue Blinken will have to tackle during his visit is the situation in North-Kivu where the M-23 is currently engaged in an open war with the Congolese army and gaining ground every day. Several sources such as the UN, HRW and the Congolese government itself are accusing Rwanda to have a hand in this rebellion. In fact, more than 100 other rebel groups are present in this part of the DRC and the Muslim ADF-Nalu and another group that calls itself CODECO are the most violent of them. Another destabilizing factor is the presence of the FARDC (Congolese army) itself as it has been proven numerous times that most of the weaponry used by all these militias comes from that source and most of the human rights abuses have to be noted on their CV.   A recent report even showed that the M-23 even was amongst the less violent kids on the block in this area. But they are getting all the attention.
  • The region witnessed two other Tutsi led rebellions in the past: the first one was led by Laurent Nkunda and the second one by another former officer of the Rwandan army, Sultani Makenga. Both of them are Congolese Tutsi’s and they took up arms to protect their families and their possessions after they came under treat from the Rwandan Hutu extremists that were used by the politicians and the presidents in Kinshasa to do their fighting. In each case the government of Paul Kagame in Rwanda was accused by the local authorities to support these rebellions. And it is true that at that time Kigali was closely involved.  The biggest reason why Kigali did this was to prevent the FDLR to infiltrate Rwanda. Under immense international pressure Kigali put an end to its support to Makenga en Nkunda. In 2013 Makenga withdrew to Uganda where he and his men ended up in refugee camps. They had signed deals with the Congolese government to be reintegrated into the FARDC, with the guarantee that their relatives who were all staying in refugee camps in Rwanda could go back to their villages in eastern Congo. But these deals were never respected. So, at the end the M-23 returned to Congo where they took up positions on the slope of a very difficult to attack volcano. From there they started to stage a small-scale guerrilla war to remind the central government about their previous promises. But that also failed: Kinshasa now started to brand them as a terrorist organization and refused to talk to them.  
  • The relationship between the M-23 and the Rwandan government is very easy to explain but sometimes also very difficult to understand for outsiders. Both are very much Tutsi orientated and many Congolese Tutsi’s have relatives in Rwanda. Others obtained Rwandan citizenship over the years but still feel Congolese. Many officers within the M-23 started their careers in the Rwandan army, fought other wars in Congo for other organizations and had finally ended up in the rebel group of Laurent Nkunda and/or Sultani Makenga. New recruits were easily found in the refugee camps in Rwanda and in Uganda. The fact that the M-23 was able to regain strength came hand in hand with the fact that the Ugandans, who were engaged in a political standoff with the Rwandan government started to re-equip the FDLR in Congo. When Rwanda and Uganda settled their differences, this support stopped but the M-23 and the other remaining Tutsis in Congo were forced to defend themselves. They raided FARDC weapon stocks and were able to stage more attacks.  To describe this whole story in detail would be very complex and nearly un-understandable for many outsiders. But the whole situation evolved in what we see today: the FARDC was no match for the better motivated M-23 who received moral support from the whole Tutsi community in Congo, Rwanda and in Burundi. Some Congolese Tutsi families had sons under arms in the RDF (Rwandan army) and others in the M-23. Others were demobilized after a 5-year long tour of duty in the RDF and went straight to the M-23 to fight the FARDC and the FDLR. Being Congolese Tutsis, this was a natural thing for them to do.
  • What the international community also fails to understand is the fact that Rwanda remained under treat from the beginning in 1994 until now. A lot of prominent genocidaires escaped to Congo and to Europe and started to reorganize themselves. But the contacts with the Hutu extremists in the DRC and in Burundi were also kept warm. The idea behind this was to lure Rwanda into a bigger and open war again in the DRC or in Burundi. Paul Rusesebagina’s FNL was to play a leading role into all this. As he was very famous, he seemed well fit for his role but he was also very weak. For the people who manipulated him into the conviction that he could become the new leader of Rwanda he is now more useful as a martyr in jail.  Add to that the ongoing distrust between Uganda and Rwanda, the fact that Rwanda is developing economically at a steady pace and that this is provoking a lot of jealousy. The fact that the new Rwandan model also became an example for other African countries who started to call upon Kagame to stabilize their own countries was not always well greeted by the bigger foreign nations. On top of that Kagame was also known to tell these bigger countries to take a hike when they were trying to impose things on him he didn’t like. Rwanda cannot be described as a classic example of an African democracy that bends over to the superpowers to jump back in line if needed. The human rights situation in Rwanda is much better than the ones in the surrounding countries.  But the country keeps being bashed by organizations such as HRW and opposition groups abroad who were able to burry their genocidaire past and who are no hiding behind, for them, new principles such as democracy and respect for human rights. In the same time, they were the ones who taught the Congolese how to accuse the Tutsi community of all the mishaps and disasters in their country. Very often to cover up their own crimes, their corruption and their incapacity to solve the problems themselves. Congolese politicians master the art of political and hypochondriac warfare better than anyone else. Instigating hatred and manipulating the audience is part of this strategy. Kinshasa is on the other side of the African continent and very few diplomats in that city understand the true nature of the events in the Kivu’s.
  • What we can say about a possible military involvement of the RDF in North-Kivu is the fact that the Rwandan army largely stayed out of the country. As the FDLR and other extremist Hutu groups continue to be risk for the stability of Rwanda we think that it is not more than normal that the RDF is keeping a couple of fingers on the Congolese pulse. Especially now that the same FDLR has become a part of the Congolese army and that nobody is contesting this in a decent way. The RDF is present in big numbers on the Rwandan side of the border and could stop the ongoing war in Congo in a couple of days if they would be allowed to intervene but they didn’t really do that. That’s the reason why it would be interesting to see the evidence the UN based its recent statements on. It is also a fact that the image of the UN recently took a big blow during the anti-UN riots in the province. Was this the reason why these statements were released now? Politicians in Kinshasa were frotting their hands with these new elements. In the same statements the UN staff confirmed that it was the attacks of the M-23 that instigated all the problems that followed. A bit of extra nuance and explanations might also have been useful in this case. It is clear that the organization wanted to throw this on the table before the arrival of Blinken. For now, it only looks like a clever move to shovel the responsibility of this mess entirely back into the boots of the Rwandans.
  • The region of the African Great Lakes is clearly not a priority any longer for the US. It took the Biden administration more than one year to have a new ambassador in place in Kigali and some insiders openly doubt that this person lacks the diplomatic weight to grasp the complexity of the situation. President Obama had a very intelligent guy like Thomas Periello roam the region nearly full time to mediate and to talk with all the protagonists on the spot. President Trump probably never heard of Rwanda or the Congolese Kivu’s. Joe Biden only seems to listen to the Hollywood lobby that is trying to get Rusesebagina out of jail and only sends a man like Blinken to the region to try to counter recent Russian charm offensives. Before making controversial statements about the fact that the Hollywood hero will remain in jail for his crimes and before putting more oil on the fire of those who are trying to put the responsibility of the plagues that keep on hitting Congo the American government might better think twice. Rwanda has the only army in this part of the world that is worthy that name, it has always been on the side of the US but that attitude might change. With a guy as Donald Trump still in the spotlights to run for a new presidency, with a war in Ukraine still raging on that is of lesser interest for most of the Africans than Washington thinks Blinken might make a big mistake for being too outspoken. The credibility of the American foreign policy in this region is at stake and only by studying and judging these problems correctly that can be maintained. If the Americans are not willing to do this it might be better for them to shut up! In case Rwanda will come under attack from different sides it will react like Israel and fight back. Rwandans are reasonable people and they are always open for valuable arguments but if you tell them that they don’t have to right to protect themselves they’ll block. The same goes for the Tutsi community in the DRC: 25 years ago, there were more than 120.000 of them living in that part of the country. Today that number has dwindled to not even 10.000 souls who are constantly at risk. The Congolese refugees want to go back home and reclaim their lands and their houses and this time the M-23 will not leave before putting up a serious fight. And if they lose that war they’ll be back in a couple of years.

In a firefight it is always advisable to look first for cover, to try to know where the bullets come from, who’s shooting at you and to determine the kind of ammo they are using and base your counter attack on that info. In this case the recce done on the spot by Blinken’s collaborators is very bad. He should take this into consideration before he acts.

                                                                                                    Marc Hoogsteyns

Tshisekedi shot himself in the foot with a 50 cal. bullet by failing to control the mob

29 Jul

To make an analysis of the ongoing problems in the Congolese Kivu’s is a very difficult job: even the most die-hard Congo watchers now openly admit that the last drops of hope and logic left the kettle. Nothing seems to make sense any longer after the mog attacked the Monusco force in the province and looted their properties. Everybody knew already that the whole UN operation in the DRC was a complete failure but with the ongoing war against the M23 rebels around Goma and the fact that more than 100 rebel groups are active in the region Congo seems to have shot itself once again in the foot. And this time the inflicted wound might be uncurable: the FARDC is relying on the UN for supplies such as weapons, ammunition and rations. Monusco is also providing air support with their planes and helicopters. That whole system is now flushed trough the toilet.  There were chaos and violence where used, most of the time, as a tool by several manipulators who each had their own agendas the virus has now become uncontrollable. To translate this in medical terms and to compare Congo with a human body a diagnose would not be difficult to make: the country is suffering from an aggressive brain tumor, liver and lung cancer and this patient cannot be cured because the doctors are unable to decide what kind of chemo therapy it needs. The hospital in which this patient is treated is so badly organized that most of the medicines never reach the sick and are being sold on local markets, without money for electricity and paying the doctors and the nurses. A short summary of facts and observations:

  • A part from the fact that Monusco was already declared uncapable to solve the ongoing problems, mainly because the organization had to rely on the goodwill and the decisions of the Congolese government to run its operation, a couple of politicians in Kinshasa took advantage of this situation and travelled to the Kivu’s to stir up more emotions. The president of the Congolese senate is a very good example of that.  The day after that youngster of President Tshisekedi’s own UDPS started distributing tracks that Monusco had to leave, that the organization was utterly useless and that the Congolese should take things themselves into their hands.  They seemed to be supported in this statement by other organizations such as LUCHA. The first protest meetings went out of hand: UN vehicles were attacked in Goma and soon several UN compounds were attacked and looted by the same mob. The same thing happened in other towns such as Uvira, Beni, Butembo and Kiwanja.  The Congolese police and the FARDC did nothing to stop it and in some cases even participated in the lootings. The shit hit the fan big time, a couple of protesters and UN staff died in this event. A couple of manipulators had tried to ignite a fuse to put pressure on Monusco but the whole house was blown up. And nobody seemed to be capable to put out the fire. In the meanwhile, the FARDC was preparing an offensive against the M-23 rebels. Mainly by equipping the present FDLR, Nyatura and other groups such as NDC-Renovee to do most of the fighting for them.  With weapons and ammunition Monusco had given them. The whole offensive would also have to rely heavily on the logistical support of the UN with air-support, ration distributions, etc. A couple of days the FARDC launched this attack but as we speak the same force is already pushed back by the rebels whom this time, are not sparing their anger.  And this is not all: hundreds of ex militia men who agreed to surrender decided to regain the bush due to lack of food and proper shelter. For the first time since long Monusco brought out some declarations that their collaboration with the FARDC never could work properly because of the corrupt and undisciplined behavior of its officers. Until now president Tshisekedi failed to come up with a decent explanation of what happened, he seems unapt to control his soldiers on the spot and during these events he was taking an expensive holiday in Marbella.  And even worse: nobody would be able to put the blame of this disaster in the shoes of the Rwandans or the M-23. Knowing well that the FARDC was preparing another offensive and they had sufficient time to dig in and to prepare for a counter attack. The latter is now in process.
  • For the M-23 the chaos in Goma and in the other towns is a welcome gift; it shows clearly how unprepared, unorganized and vulnerable their enemy is. And the same Monusco who had permitted the FARDC to re-group and to re-equip the FDLR and other negative forces was bitten in its fingers by the same people they were trying to help.  Even in Rwanda people have problems to understand these events.  But in the same time Kigali remains vigilant: this kind of chaos can easily spread over the border. In an attempt to cover up their own weaknesses the Congolese might find a way to accuse them once again of all these problems and the hatred against the Monusco can be easily re-directed against the Tutsi community in the Kivu’s. Especially now that the international community is not in a position any longer to protect them.
  • Off the record reports show clearly the involvement of the FDLR in the chaos in Goma. It is known that they control for a big part the public transport in the city via a whole little army of taxi motorbike drivers. A lot of them played an active role in the looting and in the protests. Hutu lobby leaders in Europe such as Faustin Twagiramungu are very vocal nowadays to support the alliance between the FDLR, the Nyatura (extremist Hutu groups) with the FARDC. The FDLR understands that after and eventual neutralization of the M-23 the international community cannot make the same mistake as in 2013 to leave the FDLR in peace after the defeat of the Tutsi rebels. For the FDLR the outcome of this conflict is therefore very crucial as well and chaos is the only tool they have left to protect themselves. But the situation is now more explosive than ever: new attempts can be made to lure Rwanda openly into a bigger war.
  • The geo political and military picture is not an ideal one either. Contradictions are vividly present is this forum as well. The Congolese government used the discussions in Luanda to be able to prepare a new offensive against the M-23. In the same time Tshisekedi comes out with statements that he will open up the Virunga Park for oil- and gas extractions. Much to the dislike of groups such as Greenpeace who are warning the outside world for an ecological disaster in the region. Uganda is still involved with the FARDC to neutralize and to fight the ADF rebels up north but those extremists keep on causing terror and killings with an ease that nobody can understand. In the same time Rwanda and Uganda seem to get along better but the distrust between the two countries remains high. Even to the extent that the RDF (Rwandan army) might think that it’s possible the Ugandan army can bag them once they’ll enter Congo.  We can give you other examples of all this.  
  • The composition of possible East-African force to stabilize the situation in the Kivu’s also started off on the wrong foot. This newly born structure is prone to be infected by the same virus as MONUSCO. With a Kenyan general in charge, a Congolese FARDC general who’ll be responsible for intel and a Burundian general in charge of logistics this operation becomes a joke even before it can start. As we speak Burundi is already sending hundreds of Inbonerakure (Burundian Hutu militia that is partially commanded by Rwandan FDLR extremists into South-Kivu to fight the Red Tabara group. Burundian human rights groups are warning the outside world already for human rights abuses.  The M-23 already declared that they will fight this force in the same way as they fight the FARDC now. The EAC force will have to deal with the same undisciplined and corrupt FARDC force as the Monusco. And Rwanda will not take part in this operation. They were not invited to join and they might think twice about a possible offer to do this anyway.  The FDLR would have no problem at all to mingle with the Inbonerakure who all received Burundian army uniforms before entering Congo.
  • The fact that Monusco remained extremely ineffective during all those years is not entirely their fault but mainly due to the restrictions that were put on them to collaborate with the FARDC and to engage only with the consent of the Congolese generals. The ongoing talks between Rwanda and the DRC are also ineffective because Rwanda cannot talk for the M-23 who was not invited. The attempt of politicians in Kinshasa to accuse Kigali to steer and to support the M-23 rebellion also failed big time. The American decision to stop giving money to the RDF to pay for its peace and stabilizing missions in countries such as Sudan. CAR and Mozambique are also judged to be unwise by many Africa watchers. Nobody seems to understand the policy of Joe Biden in this part of the world; the US invite the daughter of a Hollywood hero into official hearings and this good-looking girls spits out the one lie after the other.  Biden should understand that the Russian minister of foreign affairs is on its way to Kinshasa and that the Congolese leadership might also be able to switch their alliances in no time if they are being lectured too hard about their own incapacity to run the country properly.   

It is extremely difficult not to become skeptical about want is going on in the DRC.  European diplomats and military observers are telling us off the record that none of the Congolese troops they are currently training in the country will be able to deal with the situation.  The local population is left on its own and is suffering like hell. It has also become very clear that the Congolese political elite is unwilling and uncapable to solve this situation.  The recent chaos in Goma was butter on the bread of the M-23 and Tshisekedi put a 50 cal. bullet in its own foot by not being able to control this mob. He allowed hatred messages to take control over the public narrative, he allowed the FDLR to enter into the FARDC, he disrespected the deals that were made with the M-23 years ago and he used this conflict a a shield to ask his own incompetence. He inflicted a wound on himself that cannot be healed.  And instead of tackling the problem at the source the international community continues to pet this man. .

                                                                    Marc Hoogsteyns                                                                                   

The Luanda road map: a way out for peace or for a total disaster ? 

7 Jul

It was all hands on deck yesterday for everybody who is following up on the current conflict between the M23 and the FARDC in the Congolese Kivu’s. The Angolan government was able to convince the Rwandan president Kagame and his Congolese colleague Tshisekedi for a tête à tête meeting in Luanda. This would be the encounter of the last chance to stop this war. In the previous days and weeks it had become clear how complex the topic had become: Kinshasa was accusing Kigali of supporting the rebels, Kigali denied,  the previous deals that had been mede were not respected, the FARDC took serious beatings and scrambled by allowing the FDLR (a real terrorist organisation) to fight in its ranks,  hatred messages had been spread to incite the Congolese population to kill and to attack Tutsi’s, etc.  Right after this meeting no official statement was made and each protagonist came out with some vague statements and rumors that reinforced their previous statements. Later that night a kind of a road map was published and distributed of which nobody knew if it was a credible paper because it was not signed by anyone. This morning we received the confirmation that it was indeed a more or less genuine text that could be used as a first step to stop the violence between the M23 and the FARDC.  But will this be possible? At first sight the paper contains  several contradictions. But anyway: a serious dialogue should start somewhere. Analyzing this complex mess in which lies, manipulation have become very obvious is not easy.

M-23

A factual simplification of the events and the reasons why the M23 decided to take op arms once again is not so difficult to make. The M23 had left the region in 2013 after it was attacked by a coalition force of Congolese troops and troops from other African countries. They decided not to fight them and the support from Rwanda had dried up.  Kigali had decided to drop them as the regime was put under enormous pressure from abroad.  For Kigali the further development of Rwanda was more important. They agreed to withdraw their support to the Congolese rebels and they were given guarantees that de Rwandan Hutu extremists in the Kivu’s would be dealt with as well.  The M23 ended up largely in Ugandan refugee camps. They were promised a deal in which they could be re-integrated into the FARDC and in which their families (who were living in refugee camps in Rwanda and in Uganda) could return home an reclaim their properties. They were also promised that negative forces such as the FDLR and the Nyatura would be curtailed so that those could not attack their families. But all this never happened; the 2013 deal was never respected by the Congolese government, the FDLR was never effectively dealt with and the M23 fighters were left behind as paria’s behind the fences of refugee camps. They tried several times to speak out for themselves but they were never listened to. Kinshasa considered their faith as a done deal that would or could not be discussed in the future. In the meanwhile the rations of their relatives who were living in refugee camps in Rwanda were cut nearly in halve and a lot of the youngsters in those camps wanted to join a new rebellion.  Makenga & co, the leaders of the M23, had decided to take their faith once again in their own hands and they were able to relocate their left-over force om the slopes of the Sabino volcano, in the DRC.  They first clashed with the FDLR and later on also with the FARDC. As time passed by those skirmishes turned into real battles but still Kinshasa didn’t consider the problem serious enough to work out a longer lasting deal.  The FDLR had been curtailed in 2019 by a joint RDF-FARDC force and that force was able to take out hard core Interahamwe leaders such as Sylvester Mudachumura.  But the RDF was limited in its actions to deal properly with the FDLR because of the fact that this group had close links with the same FARDC that was fighting alongside them to neutralize this force.

FDLR

During the last two years the FDLR was able to regain strengt because they received aid from Uganda. Hutu extremists started to mobilize the Congolese Hutu population. Uganda stopped supporting the FDLR when their good relationship with Rwanda was restored but the damage was done: the FDLR had managed to become a treat once again for Kigali and the FARDC was an active  partner in that proces. This element is important; some Congo watchers consider the FDLR of today as weak and as a force that cannot infiltrate Rwanda. But they are wrong. The FDLR delivered the bulk of the fighters of Paul Rusesebagina’s FNL, new deals were made with the extremist Hutu government in Burundi, the FDLR had started to mobilize once again villagers in the border area between Congo and Rwanda to organize new rebellions and they wanted to implant strongholds as well in the Nyungwe forest in the south as in the area around Rutshuru in the DRC.  In Nyungwe they faced the RDF and in Congo they faced the M23. This organization had found its second breath with new recruits that were joining them from refugee camps in Rwanda and in Uganda. Makenga & co decided to change tactics: for them attacking FARDC and FDLR positions was better suited than just sit it out on a volcano and being shelled at at random as clay pigeons.

FARDC

The FARDC was surprised with the punch that the M23 was able to put into these attacks and they started to disrupt their trade with other militia’s. M-23 officers such as Makenga and Willy Ngoma and also their more political collaborator Bertrand Bizimwa in Kampala kept on repeating their grievances. But to no prevail;  most of the politicians in Kinshasa pushed their demands off the table, when meetings were set up in Kampala and in Nairobi the M-23 was not even invited and they suddenly were called terrorists and Rwandans.  That was easy for the top brass in Kinshasa because in Congo most of the people are very badly informed about the history of their country. We already published a couple of papers about how and why the anti-Rwanda and the anti-Tutsi narrative in Congo took form, how it was influenced by the Rwandan radical Hutu lobby that is directed by they leaders in Europe. In a country where every political party and every important politician has links with one of more militia’s to stir up problems or to divert the attention of the public the anti-Tutsi and/or anti-Rwanda narrative became the favorite tool of many of those manipulators. But the M-23 wiped the floor with the FARDC and they are now in the proces to do the same with the FDLR. Internal FARDC reports show us that the number casualties on the FARDC is very high, much too high!  Kinshasa was unable to come up with evidence that Kigali was effectively supporting the M-23 with weapons and manpower. They are now calling the M-23 a professional and well organized army and they are using this argument to convince the outside world that the RDF is involved to support the rebels.  

Kigali

In a previous paper that we published on this blog we already went into detail to explain the complex interaction between the M-23 and the Rwandan authorities in Kigali.  To cut this  short our findings are that there is a lot of moral support for the cause of the M-23 in Rwanda. But the RDF has always refrained from helping them logistically. The fact that some of the M-23 officers once fought in the ranks of the RDF and the fact that f.i. most of the rebel recruits come from refugee camps in Rwanda does not mean that the M-23 is an annex of the RDF.  And most of the weapon arsenal of the M-23 originate from FARDC stocks. Rwanda has learned a lot from the mistakes it has made in the past: their AFDL adventure, their collaboration with other anti-Kinshasa constructions such as both of the RCD projects and their collaboration with Laurent Nkunda had al turned into political and military nightmares. Most of their former allies had turned against them and they were being accused of all the crimes and wrongdoings of those politicians. And the international public opinion went along with that.  So their position towards the M-23 was clear: “You’re on your own but we will morally support you!” The fact that the M-23 seemed more than capable to deal with the badly trained and disciplined FARDC made things much more easy for Kigali. The local Rwandan press is following the events in the DRC very closely and is largely supportive of the M-23. And you cannot avoid either that an RDF officer who wants to be well informed about the situation on the front line in the Kivu’s calls one of his cousins in the M-23 for updates.

Road map

The Luanda road map is a positive beginning for peace in the region. The intention of the Angolan president can only be praised. But it can also become another trap and many observers consider this as the plan of the last chance. It contains several contradictions and each of the protagonists involved can use it to reinforce their already existing narratives.

– The map starts with the request for an immediate cease fire. This morning the FARDC started shelling M-23 positions and this will, without any doubt, evolve in a M-23 counter attack  that will put another couple of hundreds of FARDC on their feet to run away.

–  We still do not understand well if this road map was just put forward by the Angolans to win some time and to let some steam off the kettle because nobody signed it and the outside world was just told that next weeks other talks will take place.  

– President Tshisekedi did not get the answer from Paul Kagame that he wanted to hear, that Rwanda was supporting the M-23 and that the M-23 should withdraw completely out of the zones they captured. He was told by the same Kagame that he should solve this problem ‘between Congolese’ according to the deals that were forged in 2013.

– For some Congolese hot heads the fact that Kagame agreed to travel to Luanda is already the proof that he backs up the M-23.  The more realistic answer on that would be that Kagame just went to help the Angolan president to let steam of that same kettle. Because Rwanda does not want war and they have shown in the past that talking is always better than fighting.

– In the same logic President Kagame could lack the authority to command the M-23 to put down their weapons. He could advise them friendly to do that but considering what already happened this morning he would have a hard time to convince Makenga & co not to defend themselves.

– Another element in this road plan that is very difficult to believe is that the FDLR would be dealt with accordingly. The Congolese authorities already promised that several times in the past but never managed to make those promises hard. Nowadays most of the FDLR and the Nyatura are fighting side by side with the FARDC and they just received new weaponry to do that. Not even the mice or the ants in the Kivu’s can believe that the FARDC  or even the UN or the EA force will be able to do this.

– Today Tshisekedi was already criticized  openly by other Congolese politicians that he went to soft on Kagame. The whole hatred campaign that has put its claws on the Congolese public opinion is now insisting on more blood.  The Congolese president has lost the control on his own army, opposition leaders want to avoid that he postpones the elections next year.  He might not be physically and politically fit enough to danse much longer on that long and slippery rope.  For his political ennemies in Kinshasa vaseline is not difficult to come by.

– The revival of that joint control mechanism under the direction of an Angolan general would be very good and can have a positive impact on things. But this will probably also fail to deliver solid prove evidence that the RDF is backing up the M-23.

– At the end of the day it will all come back to where this originated: the recognition of the 2013 demands of the M-23 and the implementation of rules that will enable them to integrate the FARDC. With the possibility for the ‘kongomani’ refugees to return to their lands and villages in Masisi and Rutshuru and to profit there from the full protection of the Congolese security forces.

– The M-23 made it already clear that they will never accept a deal in which they have to leave the region again. It’s a positive thing that Tshisekedi pulled off the terrorist labels on their uniforms. But how to change the completely manipulated and racist opinion of the Congolese? Tshisekdi is not the only kid on the block to try to regain popularity with that. Others such as Fayulu and Kabila might take this over from him.

– This plan does not say anything about the other conflicts in the DRC. Groups such as the ADF and CODECO are causing much more damage. Hypochondria and political intrigues should make place in Congo for more realistic measures.

– The Luanda road plan can become a very positive tool in the near future but if this is badly used it can plunge the country into an even much deeper abyss.  And finally it will be up to the Congolese to fix their own problems.  After the complete failure of MONUSCO, the fact that an EA force might not be the ideal formula either Kinshasa is running out of options.

                                                                                                Marc Hoogsteyns

The M23 deadlock: “We are here to stay and we will fight!”

30 Jun

President Félix Tshisekedi will not be able to announce today, during the independence ceremony,  that the Congolese territory has been cleared or freed of the M23 rebel movement. Despite the fact that reinforcements were sent to the Kivu’s and despite the fact that the FARDC starts to learn how to fight these rebels in a more efficient way the overall situation for the FARDC turns out to be worse and less hopeful than last month.  Even the better trained and also better motivated Congolese commando unit that was sent to the region proved no match for the rebels.  The much more mobile M23 is now encircling strategic positions such as Rumangabo (a military camp outside Goma) and they have the ability to cut of the road between Rutshuru and Goma.  Foreign observers and even UN officials are now even comparing them with a small but highly professional army that is very well equipped with modern weapons. And they are making use of those very efficiently.  Their stand is clear: “The deal we struck with the Congolese government in 2013 was not respected, we came back to make that clear. They are calling us terrorists now and they accuse us of being a secret column of the RDF, we are Congolese but they call us Rwandans. In fact they can call us whatever they want but we are here to stay;  their arguments are weak and now they are fighting alongside with the FDLR and the Nyatura. The UN is endorsing this. In 2013 we accepted their terms and we withdrew into Uganda. We will not do this again.  We will fight!”

Last week some sources into the SOKOLA 2 structure raised hope for the FARDC by claiming that the M23 movement was low on manpower to stage attacks and defend its positions.  With fresh reinforcements and by attacking the M23 from different directions it would be more easy to neutralise them but the rebels saw them coming, they split up in several smaller units, withdrew from some positions luring the FARDC into traps and to attack their supply lines. It is true that in the DRC very few other rebels groups have the ability to set up a strategy like that, on such a short notice.  The M23 was also very well informed of the intentions of the army and its allies. Another disadvantage for the FARDC is the fact that the FDLR- and the Nyatura-units that had received FARDC uniforms and weapons remained under the command of their previous chiefs who still all have their own agendas and, in some cases, do not trust the FARDC command either. It is easy for the M23 to neutralize these groups as they are now bundled in bigger units therefore less mobile.  And it is now these FDLR and these Nyatura who are doing most of the fighting against the M23. Lingala soldiers do not want to risk their lives in this far away conflict with officers who first think about their own wallets before they are taking the safety of their men into consideration.  The FDLR and the Nyatura are making their last stand: if they are being kicked out of this region it might take them a lot of effort and pain to regain their strength. And the M23 is in the process to target their leadership and their command structures. Even when other groups such as the Mayi Mayi are now mobilizing to join the FARDC and the FDLR to fight the M23 this can never work out well on the longer run. Some of them are known to be able to chance sides faster than President Tshisekedi is able to change his underpants.

Nobody was able to deliver clear evidence that the RDF is directing and supporting the M23. It is a fact that the moral support for the actions of Makenga & co in Rwanda and in circles of Burundian Tutsi’s is massive. It is also a fact that the M23 is currently giving proof that they can handle this problem on their own.  But there is no solid evidence of weapon deliveries and presence of Rwandan troops on Congolese soil. Most of the weapons the M23 is fighting with were captured on the FARDC when they fled.  These heavy mortars, artillery pieces and other more sophisticated stuff that was left behind is being used more effectively by the M23 than by their previous owners. Some officers of the M23 fought in the RDF in the old days, they were demobilized in Rwanda and absorbed in the AFDL and in the RCD movements to end up under the command of Laurent Nkunda and Sultani Makenga later on. These officers are battle hardened and very experienced. But they are first of all Congolese and their past actions can never justify the claim that they are Rwandans.

The fact that the FARDC already knows that the M23 are undermanned to endure massive attacks is already a contradiction on itself.  This shows clearly that they also know that the RDF is not involved.  Only open killings of Tutsi’s in the Congolese Kivu’s, FARDC of FDLR attacks on Rwandan soil could trigger off a bigger war. But even in that case the RDF would probably only react with a couple of well aimed Mike Tyson uppercuts to refrain these forces to commit the same mistakes again. The Burundian government already laid out this kind of bait for Kagame in the Nyungwe forest a couple of years ago.  But that did not work: most of the infiltrators were killed on the spot, their leaders were arrested, their PR-boss Paul Rusesebagina was flown to Kigali with champagne at his lips and arrested on arrival.  President Kagame has learned that to win a war you not always have to fight it  or fight it yourself.  In this case he clearly receives help from the Congolese leaders in Kinshasa who are taking the one disastrous decision after the other.  Their inability  to deal properly with this problem becomes clear: they are not capable to fight this war themselves, they are begging for help from the outside and they are allowing other rebel groups to reinforce the FARDC.  Most of the outside observers and diplomats are very well informed that the Congolese government never respected their 2013 deals with the M23.  And they also know that Kigali does not want a war with the DRC. If the Tutsi community in the DRC will be attacked the Congolese government  will be held accountable for that. Only diplomacy and respect for the deals made in the past can solve this problem.  And the Congolese will have to do that themselves. The M23 is putting its finger in the Congolese ulcer that incorporates 130 other rebellions, an utterly corrupt leadership and an army of thugs. Talking to them and respecting the deals that were already made in the past might be a first step to adres the other problems that are paralyzing this beautiful country and its nice population.    

To be followed……….

                                                                                                         Marc Hoogsteyns